The 2026 Outlook: Beyond the Forecast

What's happening

1. The market is bifurcating further

The upper segment continues to behave differently from the broader housing market. In 2025, top-tier residential assets showed stronger value retention and transaction continuity while mainstream markets slowed or stalled. The report expects this divergence to persist into 2026.

2. Wealth transfer is now a structural driver

Roughly USD 6 trillion in generational wealth moved in 2025. This is not cyclical capital. It is long-duration money, often deployed with legacy, family structure, and geographic optionality in mind. Residential real estate remains a preferred allocation.

3. Cross-border demand is normalizing, not fading

Foreign buyer activity increased materially, particularly in politically stable jurisdictions with lifestyle depth and legal clarity. Buyers are less reactive to rate cycles and more focused on jurisdictional risk, residency flexibility, and asset usability.

4. Inventory has improved, selectively

In some prime markets, high-end inventory has returned closer to pre-pandemic levels, especially in new or recently repositioned stock. This does not imply abundance. It choice implies, mainly at the top end, while truly irreplaceable assets remain scarce.

5. Buyer priorities have shifted

Security, privacy secondary, and energy autonomy are no longer features. They are baseline expectations. Multigenerational layouts and long-term adaptability are increasingly built into decision making, not added later.

Why it matters

For buyers, this is a market where optionality exists, but only briefly and occasionally. Choice does not equal leverage across all assets.

For sellers, the window for decisive positioning is open, but only if pricing and timing are aligned with how capital is actually behaving, not how the broader housing narrative sounds.

For advisors, generic market commentary is now actively misleading. The delta between average and prime outcomes is widening.

What this changes

Pricing strategy

Static pricing anchored to past peaks underperforms. Assets that are precisely positioned early tend to clear better than those that “test” the market.

Timing logic

First-mover advantage matters again. Waiting for confirmation often means competing with new supply or shifting attention.

Asset selection

Quality is being redefined less by finishes and more by jurisdiction, privacy, adaptability, and long-term usability.

Geographic reading

Country-level data is insufficient. Outcomes are increasingly city-specific, and often micro-market specific.

Key takeaways

• The upper residential market is not correcting. It is separating.
• Wealth transfer is a durable demand source, not a short-term boost.
• Scarcity still exists, but it is asset-specific, not market-wide.
• Buyer focus has shifted from price sensitivity to structural resilience.
• Strategy now matters more than market direction.

Next week, we will take the first theme and break it down in depth.